Avian influenza H5N1 under an electron microscope [Credit: Cynthia Goldsmith, Jackie Katz]
Their study, published in One Health, is the result of a partnership project between Fudan University and the University of Sydney, led by Chinese researchers and co-authored by Professor Michael Ward from the Sydney School of Veterinary Science.
The team created a database of more than 70,000 records of animal influenza from 1970 to 2016, providing insights into the trends of these viruses over time and space. It gives public health authorities a framework to detect and track viral outbreaks in animals that threaten to emerge in human populations.
“This generates a solid foundation for understanding how, when and where animal influenza viruses could evolve into pandemic agents,” Professor Ward said.
“We are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic now, but a flu virus that flares up and takes hold in humans has the potential to dwarf the impact from COVID-19 given the high mortality rates caused by some animal viruses.”
The researchers concluded that bird flu might be the source of a new pandemic strain. Birds are natural hosts of a huge range of avian influenza subtypes. This, say the authors, increases the likelihood that bird flu could become zoonotic, that is, transfer from animal to human.
